What is a value bet?
Imagine a friend offers you 2.20 on a fair coin landing heads. A fair price would be 2.00, because heads happens half the time. At 2.20 you are being paid more than the risk deserves.
100 flips at £1 each, at 2.20
About 50 wins × £2.20 = £110 back for £100 staked
About 50 wins × £2.20 = £110 back for £100 staked
You will still lose plenty of single flips, sometimes several in a row. The edge only shows up over many bets. That is a value bet: the price is better than the true chance.
The hard part in football is knowing the true chance. Any estimate can be wrong, which is why every RERO pick goes in the public track record, so you can judge whether our estimates hold up.